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American voters vote early in Texas. Photo: AFP.
“It would be naive to predict that nothing goes wrong,” commented Times.
For many, the fears turned to fear at the chaotic post-election scenario, making the Florida vote-counting crisis of 2000 a mere “walk in the park.”
However, experts say it is less likely that the post-election crisis will occur. There are bad scenarios, but the likelihood of them happening isn’t high. However, the actions of President Trump make such scenarios become more realistic than they really are.
Benjamin Ginsberg, representative of the Republican National Committee in the 2000 recount, said that “the panic is overblown”.
Difficult to get close results
One of the worst scenarios being discussed is that there is no clear win-loss outcome on election night.
Many states are expected to be “flooded” with postal and absentee ballots, which are much larger now than in previous elections.
Such ballots require the process of tearing off envelopes, making spreadsheets, checking signatures and other technical requirements before being recognized. This means that it takes longer to count votes than voting directly.
Opinion polls show that President Trump’s skepticism of the postal vote leads to a big difference in the method of voting for two-party voters. Republican voters tend to vote on election day more directly, while Democratic voters tend to vote by mail.
If election results are prolonged, President Trump is likely to declare a surge in Democratic votes in the post-election days, stemming from postal votes, as a sign of cheating.
The three most likely states in the above scenario are Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. These are the key battlefield states, the controversy about expanding the voting system in these states has been fierce in recent days. Many voting proceedings have taken place in the state and federal courts.